%0 Report %T Elections in the Central African Republic: Possible Scenarios %+ Centre de recherches internationales (Sciences Po, CNRS) (CERI) %A Marchal, Roland %A Picco, Enrica %P 5 %I Social Sciences Research Council/United Nations %8 2020-12 %D 2020 %K Central African Republic %K elections 2020 %Z Humanities and Social Sciences/Political scienceReports %X One month before the elections in the Central African Republic (CAR), the political scene inBangui is increasingly polarized. The re-election of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra in thefirst round may deepen the discontent of many Central Africans who remain excluded from thebenefits of the international aid that is largely captured by the elites, as well as accentuate thegrowing dislike of some of the region’s heads of state. Since 2019, the Constitutional Court hasbeen ruling out some of the maneuvers of the presidential majority to unilaterally modify thelegal framework of the elections, such as the constitutional amendment proposed in April 2020to extend the mandate of President Touadéra and members of parliament should the electionsbe postponed because of force majeure (in this specific case, the COVID-19 pandemic).However, given the influence of the executive over the National Election Authority andthe absence of an international observation mission, there will not be any impartial arbitratorsof the elections. In this context of polarization, the risk of irregularities and fraud that mayundermine the credibility of the electoral process is extremely high. This threatens the reformsthat should have ended the recurring cycle of sectarian violence and built a more inclusiveCentral African society, chiefly by addressing the issue of citizenship, the divide between Banguiand the peripheries, and governance. It also risks re-igniting frustrations and tensions andcreating the conditions for a new rebellion. %G English %L hal-03100159 %U https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03100159 %~ SHS %~ SCIENCESPO %~ CNRS %~ AO-SCIENCEPOLITIQUE %~ LARA %~ USPC %~ CERI