Inaccurate approximation in the modelling of hyperinflations - Sciences Po
Article Dans Une Revue Quality and Quantity Année : 2006

Inaccurate approximation in the modelling of hyperinflations

Résumé

In time series macroeconometric models, the first difference in the logarithm of a variable is routinely used to represent the rate of change of that variable. It is often overlooked that the assumed approximation is accurate only if the rates of change are small. Models of hyper-inflation are a case in point, since in these models, by definition, changes in price are large. In this letter, Cagan’s model is applied to Hungarian hyper-inflation data. It is then demonstrated that use of the approximation in the formation of the price inflation variable is causing an upward bias in the model’s key parameter, and therefore an exaggeration of the effect postulated by Cagan.

Dates et versions

hal-03417182 , version 1 (05-11-2021)

Identifiants

Citer

Peter Moffatt, Evens Salies. Inaccurate approximation in the modelling of hyperinflations. Quality and Quantity, 2006, 40 (6), pp.1055-1060. ⟨10.1007/s11135-005-5078-2⟩. ⟨hal-03417182⟩

Collections

SCIENCESPO OFCE
31 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More