%0 Journal Article %T Sustainability of the French first pillar pension scheme (CNAV): assessing automatic balance %+ Centre d'Etude et de Recherche en économiE et gestioN LogistiquE (CERENE) %+ EconomiX (EconomiX) %+ Laboratoire Structure et Dynamiques Financières (SDF) %+ Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) (OFCE) %A Gannon, Frédéric %A Hamayon, Stéphane %A Legros, Florence %A Touzé, Vincent %< avec comité de lecture %Z 2441/3np3b6opb9naqhpogdb4fepvk %@ 2203-5354 %J Australian Journal of Acturial Practice %V 2 %P 33 - 45 %8 2014-11 %D 2014 %K Pension scheme sustainability %K Automatic balance mechanism %Z Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and FinanceJournal articles %X In this paper, we apply two types of automatic balance mechanism (ABM) to the French first pillar pension system for private sector employees (CNAV). One is based on a tax gap ratio (TGR-ABM) and the other is the smooth ABM (S-ABM) developed by Gannon, Legros and Touzé (2013). Two long-run forecast scenarios over the period 2014-2063 are analysed. The first is optimistic (“benchmark”) and assumes a 4.5% unemployment rate and a 1.5% productivity growth rate in the long run. The second is more pessimistic (“prudent”), with a 7.5% unemployment rate and a 1% productivity growth rate in the long run. For the benchmark (respectively prudent) scenario, a TGR-ABM requires, now and for the next 50 years, a 2.8% (respectively 6.3%) decrease in pensions and a 2.9% (respectively 6.7%) increase in the tax rate. An S-ABM requires, for the benchmark (respectively prudent) scenario, an immediate 1.5% (respectively 3.6%) decrease in pensions and a 1.4% (respectively 3.5%) increase in the tax rate. In the long run (50 years), an S-ABM requires a 4.5% (respectively 9.1%) reduction in pensions and a 4.5% (respectively 9.1%) increase in the tax rate. %G English %2 https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03460192/document %2 https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03460192/file/2014-gannon-hamayon-legros-touze-sustainability-of-the-french.pdf %L hal-03460192 %U https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03460192 %~ SHS %~ SCIENCESPO %~ CNRS %~ UNIV-DAUPHINE %~ UNIV-PARIS10 %~ ECONOMIX %~ AO-ECONOMIE %~ COMUE-NORMANDIE %~ UPN %~ PSL %~ UNILEHAVRE %~ UNIV-PARIS-LUMIERES %~ OFCE %~ UNIV-DAUPHINE-PSL %~ UNIV-PARIS-NANTERRE %~ SCPO_OA %~ SCPO-REPEC