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Reports (Research Report) Year : 2016

The Elusive Recovery

Georg Feigl
  • Function : Author
Markus Marterbauer
  • Function : Author
Matthias Schnetzer
  • Function : Author
Sepp Zuckerstätter
  • Function : Author
Thea Nissen
  • Function : Author
Signe Dahl
  • Function : Author
Peter Hohlfeld
  • Function : Author
Benjamin Lojak
  • Function : Author
Thomas Theobald
  • Function : Author
Achim Truger
  • Function : Author
Andrew Watt
  • Function : Author
Sabine Lebayon
  • Function : Author

Abstract

Nearly nine years after the meltdown of the financial system of developed countries followed by the euro debt crisis in 2012, recovery in Europe finally started in late 2014. We expect that economic growth is going to slow down in the EU in 2017 (1.6% after 1.9 % in 2016) and in 2018 (1.5%) as tailwinds are turning into headwinds. Brexit is likely to hit UK growth and will have negative, but limited, contagion effects to the rest of the EU. Oil prices are up again and not much more can be expected in terms of competitiveness gains through the exchange rate channel. More importantly the slowdown of international trade and of emerging countries’ growth is weakening external demand to the EU and hence another positive factor is waning. [First paragraph]

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Dates and versions

hal-03612850 , version 1 (18-03-2022)

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Georg Feigl, Markus Marterbauer, Miriam Rehm, Matthias Schnetzer, Sepp Zuckerstätter, et al.. The Elusive Recovery: iAGS 2017. [Research Report] OFCE. 2016, 223 p. ⟨hal-03612850⟩
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