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              <p>Through Grand Paris Express Project (GPE), the urban area of Paris develops new transport infrastructures that will double the current size of its subway network. We develop a new model in order to understand the impact of such a dramatic change in a framework where the labour market is frictionnal and the housing market dual, between a free sector where prices/rent are set freely and a sector where rents are controlled. We use the prediction provided by the team of the Societé du Grand Paris of an average gain of 3% of time/penibility/financial costs of transport combined with several scenarii of population growth. The model predicts either a growth of the total number of jobs or a drop of the rent in the city center. One the one hand, if new construction follows the improvement of the transport infrastructure allowing for new households to move in, the total number of jobs created is around 160 000. On the other hand, in a more malthusianist scenario where the housing supply does not adjust, employment gains will be limited and most of the benefits will come from a drop in the rent at the city center resulting from a lower demand for dwellings dose to the City Business District. If the welfare of households increase, only about 3000 jobs will be created. All the figures provided in this policy brief are deviation from the trend in the absence of new transport infrastructures while maintaining their current quality constant.</p>
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              <p>A travers le Grand Paris Express, l’agglomération parisienne se dote de nouvelles infrastructures de transport conduisant au doublement de la taille actuelle du système de métro. Nous proposons une modélisation originale de cette évolution qui intègre un marché du travail frictionnel et un marché du logement segmenté, entre un secteur à prix/loyers libres et un secteur à prix régulés. Suivant l’hypothèse retenue par les équipes de la Société du Grand Paris d’un gain de 3 % de temps/pénibilité/coûts financiers directs du transport, et en fonction de différents scénarii de croissance de la population, le modèle prédit soit des gains en emplois, soit une baisse des loyers au centre. Dans un scénario où la population peut croître au rythme de l’amélioration des différentes infrastructures de transport avec des constructions nouvelles permettant l’installation de nouveaux ménages, les effets sont de l’ordre de 160 000 emplois. Dans un scénario plus malthusien où l’offre de logements ne suit pas, les effets en emploi sont très diminués et l’essentiel de l’ajustement est porté par une baisse des loyers au centre de l’agglomération : la pression sur l’occupation de l’espace au centre est réduite. Le bien-être des ménages augmente, mais l’emploi progresse peu, de l’ordre de 3 000. Tous les chiffres de cette note sont des déviations en tendance de la situation qui aurait prévalu en l’absence de nouvelles infrastructures et maintien de la qualité des infrastructures existantes.</p>
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