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              <p>Le fort rebond de l'activité économique en 2021 a pris fin au second semestre 2022. La crise énergétique et la hausse des prix des produits alimentaires ont poussé l’inflation vers des niveaux qui n'avaient pas été observés dans les pays industrialisés depuis les années 1980. Cette augmentation des prix a rogné le pouvoir d'achat des ménages, ce qui s'est traduit par une baisse de la demande si bien que de nombreux pays flirtent désormais avec la récession. Avec le repli récent des prix des produits énergétiques, l'inflation poursuivra sa décrue progressive, en partie freinée par le rythme de progression encore soutenu des prix des produits alimentaires. Les effets des contraintes d'approvisionnement et de l'incertitude géopolitique se dissiperont mais les hausses passées des prix continueront à affecter négativement l'activité en 2023 etdans une moindre mesure en 2024. Alors que les gouvernements tentent d'amortir la baisse de revenu ou de limiter les hausses de prix par l'adoption de boucliers, les banques centrales augmentent les taux d'intérêt, ce qui accentue le ralentissement de la demande. Sur l’ensemble de l'année 2023, le PIB mondial progresserait de 2,3 %, après 3,2 % en 2022 et 6 % en 2021. Le ralentissement serait bien plus marqué dans les pays industrialisés (1 % de croissance en 2023) que dans les pays émergents et en développement (3,4 % de croissance). L’activité accélèrerait à partir du troisième trimestre 2023 sans néanmoins retrouver le rythme qu'elle avait connu en 2021. La trajectoire de reprisepost-Covid serait donc fortement altérée par la crise énergétique et le durcissement des conditions financières. La baisse de l’inflation serait progressive et les risques de boucle prix-salaire limités. À l’exception des États-Unis, les hausses de salaire nominal anticipées pour 2023-2024 ne compenseraient pas totalement l’inflation. Ainsi, en 2024, la croissance des pays industrialisés remonterait à 1,4 % pour une croissance mondiale anticipée à 2,6 %. L’inflation dépasserait encore 3 % en fin d'année 2024 dans la zoneeuro alors qu’elle s'établirait à 2,4 % aux États-Unis. Finalement, sur la période 2020-2024, le niveau des prix serait assez proche des deux côtés de l’Atlantique. Ce ralentissement amènerait aussi les banques centrales à mettre un terme au resserrement monétaire d'autant que la hausse des taux d’intérêt a fait resurgir le risque financier à l’échelle de la planète. Quand bien même les quelques faillites bancaires des dernièressemaines ne provoquent pas de crise bancaire globale, le risque demeure présent.</p>
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