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                <term xml:lang="fr">inflation</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">croissance</term>
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              <p>Les dynamiques de croissance mondiale en fin d’année 2023 sont restées contrastées. Alors que l’Europe dans son ensemble apparaît engluée dans la stagnation, les États-Unis résistent avec une croissance en hausse malgré le resserrement monétaire. Il en résulte une divergence accrue qui pourrait aller au-delà des différences de croissance potentielle. De fait, même si le retour de l’inflation a été un phénomène global, l’invasion de l’Ukraine et la crise énergétique qui a suivi ont plus profondément bousculé les économies européennes en raison d’une plus grande dépendance que les États-Unis au gaz russe dont le prix est soudainement devenu bien plus élevé qu’il ne l’avait jamais été. La politique budgétaire est certes venue en soutien, en partie atténué par la volonté des banques centrales de ramener l’inflation vers un niveau proche de 2 % comme l’exige leur mandat. De plus, l’orientation du policy mix américain a été assez similaire en 2023 à celui des pays européens puisque la politique budgétaire a été également expansionniste. À court terme, les signaux conjoncturels n’indiquent pas de rebond immédiat de l’activité en Europe. Inversement, les indicateurs restent bien orientés outre-Atlantique, suggérant que la divergence pourrait encore s’accroître au premier semestre 2024. À moyen terme, la politique monétaire devrait s’assouplir mais le débat sur le niveau des déficits publics et de la dette va s’intensifier, surtout dans l’Union européenne. Pourtant, malgré l’hétérogénéité des situations des pays qui la composent, la zone euro aurait un déficit public de 3,4 % du PIB en 2023 selon le FMI, soit près de 5 points de moins qu’aux États-Unis. Nous anticipons une faible croissance dans les pays industrialisés en 2024 (1,1 %) et des perspectives légèrement plus favorables en 2025 surtout dans les pays européens, où l’activité progresserait de 1,7 % contre 0,8 % en 2024. Du côté des pays émergents, la Chine a retrouvé un sentier de croissance plus dynamique en 2023 mais ne parviendrait plus à afficher des taux de croissance aussi élevés que pendant les années pré-Covid. L’activité ralentirait légèrement en Inde après une année 2023 très favorable. Il en résulterait une croissance mondiale en repli à 2,5 % en 2024. Malgré le rebond anticipé pour 2025 (2,8 %), la croissance mondiale semblerait marquer le pas relativement à la période 2015- 2019, où elle dépassait 3 % en moyenne annuelle.</p>
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