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The state-dependence of output revisions

Abstract : This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns — and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, October 26, 2021 - 8:26:15 AM
Last modification on : Monday, March 21, 2022 - 2:48:07 PM
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Bruno Ducoudre, Paul Hubert, Guilhem Tabarly. The state-dependence of output revisions. Economics Letters, 2020, 192, ⟨10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109223⟩. ⟨hal-03403017⟩



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