Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology - Sciences Po Access content directly
Preprints, Working Papers, ... Year : 2021

Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology

Antonin Aviat
  • Function : Author
Frédérique Bec
  • Function : Author
Claude Diebolt
  • Function : Author
Catherine Doz
  • Function : Author
  • PersonId : 913244
Denis Ferrand
  • Function : Author
Laurent Ferrara
Valérie Mignon
  • Function : Author
Pierre-Alain Pionnier
  • Function : Author


This paper proposes a reference quarterly dating for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association (AFSE). The methodology used is based on two pillars: (i) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and (ii) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-75 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-93, and the Great Recession 2008-09 spawned by the Global Financial Crisis. The peak before the Covid-19 recession has been dated to the last quarter of 2019.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
OFCEWP2021-18.pdf (539.2 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Publisher files allowed on an open archive

Dates and versions

hal-03373425 , version 1 (11-10-2021)


  • HAL Id : hal-03373425 , version 1


Antonin Aviat, Frédérique Bec, Claude Diebolt, Catherine Doz, Denis Ferrand, et al.. Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology. 2021. ⟨hal-03373425⟩
26 View
170 Download


Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More