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Journal Articles Economics Letters Year : 2020

The state-dependence of output revisions

Abstract

This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns — and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.
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Dates and versions

hal-03403017 , version 1 (26-10-2021)

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Bruno Ducoudre, Paul Hubert, Guilhem Tabarly. The state-dependence of output revisions. Economics Letters, 2020, 192, ⟨10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109223⟩. ⟨hal-03403017⟩
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