The effect of ECB forward guidance on policy expectations
Résumé
This paper investigates the instantaneous and dynamic effects of ECB forward guidance
announcements on the term structure of private short-term interest rate expectations. We
estimate the static and dynamic impact of forward guidance on private agents’ expectations
about future short-term interest rates using a high-frequency methodology and an ARCH
model, complemented with local projections. We find that ECB forward guidance
announcements decrease most of the term structure of private short-term interest rate
expectations, this being robust to several specifications. The effect is stronger on longer
maturities and persistent.
Domaines
Economies et finances
Fichier principal
wp2016-30-hubert-effectofecbforwardguidance.pdf (457.97 Ko)
Télécharger le fichier
Origine | Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte |
---|