An explorative evaluation of the climate debt
Résumé
The international process for tackling climate change endured several backslashes since
the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Issues around the respective responsibilities
are not fully solved yet. The underlying question of how to share efforts in order to reach
a Zero Net Emissions state remains largely unclear and the INDCs process has still to
deliver a pathway for decarbonization.
In the last years, the concept of global carbon budget has emerged as one of the most
direct ways to materialize the constraint from the climate. It mainly relies on the idea that
only a limited quantity of carbon dioxide can be released in the atmosphere if we want to
stay below the 2°C temperature change threshold above pre-industrial levels and, if
possible, below +1.5°C, as agreed at the Paris Conference in 2015. By comparing what is
in our carbon budget to what is done to reduce the carbon footprint of societies, we
calculate a distance to the climate constraint. Expressed in euro this distance, called the
“climate debt”, measure how much we avoid paying by delaying climate change mitigation. Using different rules for sharing the burden, acknowledging there is no negotiated
nor consensual way to share it, we calculate this climate debt for main EU countries.
The first step of the following work is to compute a carbon budget for both the European
Union and member countries mixing population based sharing (egalitarian) for EU and
rest of world budget and emission based sharing (grandfathering) for EU countries. In a
second step, we determine how many years are left before these budgets are depleted at
the regional and national levels, which requires assumptions on the future emissions
trend. Combining these trends with assumptions on the abatement cost of remaining
carbon dioxide emissions after the depletion date allows us to evaluate the “climate
debt”. More precisely, the “climate debt” is the amount of money that will have to be
invested or paid by countries for them not to exceed their carbon budget.
This work led us to three key policy insights. First, there are few years left for major European countries before exhausting their carbon budget under the +2°C target. As for the
+1.5°C target, carbon budgets are exhausted for EU main countries, which are thus
running excessive climate deficits. Secondly, the carbon debt should be considered as
one of the major issues of the decades to come since in the baseline scenario it represents
about 50% of the EU GDP to stay below +2°C (120% for staying below +1.5°C). Thirdly,
the results of the estimation of this carbon debt are subject to numerous moral, ethical
and technical assumptions that should motivate further and urgent investigations on this
subject, critical to climate change mitigation, from both state bodies and independent
research institutes.
Domaines
Economies et financesOrigine | Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte |
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