Good times, bad times
Abstract
In this article we address two important and related questions. First, do economic hard times make
defeat inevitable for any incumbent? And, second, do voters sanction incumbents for a poor economy
whatever the economic policy pursued? To answer these questions, we propose a new theory about the
ways in which taxation policies, clarity of responsibility, government ideology, and economic conditions
come together to shape election outcomes. We address these questions with a new set of data collected
on elections, government policies, and economic measures before and during the current economic
crisis. Our findings indicate that taxation policies have effects on incumbent electoral patterns net of
economic performance measures, but that these effects differ in theoretically-expected fashions
depending on clarity of responsibility, government ideology, and whether or not there has been a
recession in the year before an election is held.