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Journal Articles Journal of the European Economic Association Year : 2023

The One-Child Policy and Household Saving


We investigate whether the 'one-child policy' has contributed to the rise in China's household saving rate and human capital in recent decades. In a life-cycle model with intergenerational transfers and human capital accumulation, fertility restrictions lower expected old-age support coming from children-inducing parents to raise saving and education investment in their offspring. Quantitatively, the policy can account for at least 30% of the rise in aggregate saving. Using the birth of twins under the policy as an empirical out-of-sample check to the theory, we find that quantitative estimates on saving and education decisions line up well with micro-data.
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hal-03915301 , version 1 (29-12-2022)


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Taha Choukhmane, Nicolas Coeurdacier, Keyu Jin. The One-Child Policy and Household Saving. Journal of the European Economic Association, 2023, ⟨10.1093/jeea/jvad001⟩. ⟨hal-03915301⟩
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